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The danger of unstated assumptions
Daniel Goleman warns about one particular belief: we know everything we need to. It is rarely said out loud. Instead, it sits quietly behind decisions, plans and arguments. Unstated assumptions like this one are dangerous precisely because nobody questions them.
Every plan rests on beliefs about the future. Customers will keep buying. Costs will stay stable. The team will stay together. Most of the time, these beliefs are reasonable. Yet history is full of companies that failed when a basic belief stopped being true. Kodak, for instance, underestimated how fast digital photography would replace film.
Surfacing assumptions before they hurt
A practical habit is to write assumptions down. At the start of any project, list what must be true for the plan to work. Then rate how confident you are in each one. The weakest points deserve early tests. For example, a small survey or pilot can confirm demand before a full launch.
Another tool is to invite disagreement. Ask a colleague to play devil’s advocate, or run a short session where people challenge the plan. Diverse teams help here, because people with different backgrounds hold different beliefs. As a result, blind spots become visible sooner.
Finally, revisit your list regularly. Markets move, and yesterday’s safe belief can become today’s risk. Goleman’s warning is not a call for paralysis. Rather, it is a call for humility. Assume you are missing something, and you will look harder. That small shift often makes the difference between surprise and preparation.
In addition, keep track of which assumptions turned out wrong in past projects. That record is valuable. It shows where your intuition tends to fail, and therefore where you should look first next time you plan something important.
